Soccer Edge

Teflon

2009-12-20T02:13:00.000-08:00

It looks like there's another attempt to 'get' Harry:

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Tottenham-Manager-Harry-Redknapp-Facing-Proceedings-Over-A-Tax-Issue/Article/200912315504712?lpos=UK_News_Carousel_Region_3&lid=ARTICLE_15504712_Tottenham_Manager_Harry_Redknapp_Facing_Proceedings_Over_A_Tax_Issue

There have been rumours about this guy for years; what with questions over past transfer dealings, rumours of interesting betting transactions concerning his moves between Portsmouth and Southampton (and then Tottenham), and the recent debacle involving a City of London police raid on his home, Harry has become something of a target for HMRC.

Will Harry live up to his Teflon persona once again? They got Al Capone and John Gotti via the Taxman too...

Wednesday 16th Dec

2009-12-16T11:37:00.000-08:00

There are no selections this evening. I'll post updated profit figures for the season so far at the weekend.

Gut Instinct, Coincidence or Fluke?

2009-12-16T06:04:00.000-08:00

What's the best bet you never had? I remember mine quite clearly - not with any sense of regret, because in truth it was a poor bet - but because it stands out as one of those times where I had a strange gut instinct that something was going to happen, and it did.

I remember wandering through the city I was then living in one bright October afternoon in 2001, and came upon a Ladbrokes shop. I rarely venture in high-street bookmakers, or even check the displays in the window, but this time something caught my eye.

The bet was a Scorecast - where you hope to predict the correct score at full-time along with a goalscorer. In this case it was Manchester United to beat PSV Eindhoven 3-1, with Teddy Sheringham scoring the first goal. The odds were 89-1 and even then probably reflected poor value.

These bets are mug bets in the extreme and ones to be rightly avoided. But somehow, I just had a nagging feeling that this one was going to come in. I don't know why, the only way to describe it was gut instinct.

I thought about it for a minute or two, asked my mate for his opinion, and then decided against it. I forgot all about it until we sat down and watched the game later that evening.

Sheringham scored first. Mark van Bommel equalised midway through the second half, before United sealed the win with late goals from Paul Scholes and Dwight Yorke, who came on as a sub.

It was an odd feeling at the end of the match - pleased my instinct had proved correct, and disappointed I didn't have the lions share of £1000 for a £10 outlay!

So - what's the best bet you never had?!

Tuesday 15th Dec - Update

2009-12-15T14:23:00.000-08:00

A losing bet tonight as Villa were worthy winners, beating Sunderland 0-2. They look a very strong side at present.

More updates tomorrow.

Tuesday 15th Dec - Premiership

2009-12-15T11:29:00.000-08:00

Tonight sees the first of the mid-week Premiership action, and I will be laying Aston Villa. Current odds are 2.76 on Betfair.

Villa have a good record against Sunderland, and come off the back of a huge confidence boost courtesy of a 1-0 victory over Manchester United, whilst Sunderland's recent form has not lived up to the promise they showed some weeks ago against United and Arsenal.

However, I'm not anticipating this being an easy game for Villa and I think recent form may have affected the prices a little too much.

It Will End in Tears

2009-12-15T09:59:00.000-08:00

I had to smile when I saw this earlier:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/hampshire/8406518.stm

Portsmouth and Southampton don't readily spring to mind when thinking of partnerships. In much the same way that 'culture' isn't a word I immediately think of when I see the gurning visage of John Westwood. More like 'tribal':

Ten out of ten for optimism though.

Sunday Follow-Up

2009-12-13T12:21:00.000-08:00

A good start from yesterday's result - Blackburn drew 0-0 at Hull.

Today saw qualifiers in Serie A (a lay of Fiorentina) and the Bundesliga (a lay of Stuttgart). Both bets obliged, with Fiorentina losing 2-1 at Chievo, and Stuttgart drew 1-1 against Mainz.

There are midweek fixtures on Tuesday and Wednesday, so I'll update with any qualifying bets then.

I'll also be posting stats on the profit and ROI since the 2000/2001 season.

Today's Bet

2009-12-12T07:40:00.000-08:00

There is one selection for today in the Premiership - a lay of Blackburn advised at 2.64.

Off and Running...

2009-12-12T06:55:00.000-08:00

A slightly shaky start to our progress this season, as you can see from the graph!

We're in profit though and I've had no real concerns. I follow this method for selecting matches over the course of a whole season, so its only at the end of the season that it's profitability can be judged.

Also, a profit has been obtained using this selection method for every season since 2000/2001 - pretty good in my opinion!

So far this season a bank of £1000 in August is now worth £1972 - a ROI of 12.1% to level stakes of £50.

This is probably the most important point - if a system can't turn a profit to level stakes, then you may as well throw it in the bin. No amount of doubling up, compounding or any other Martingale-type shenanigans will make it profitable. I'll expand on this in a later post.

The First Post is the Hardest...

2009-12-07T14:38:00.000-08:00

Hello there (if, indeed, there is anybody out there!) and welcome to my blog.

I've started this blog mainly to document my own methods to turn a profit from football betting. I've been active on the betting markets for around 8 years now, and in that time I've managed to make a profit mainly from picking teams to lay in the top 5 European leagues.

One nagging thought at the back of my mind is - does the Web need another blog on betting, but the only way to find out is to give it a go.

I have some stats on progress to-date, which I'll post in the next few days. In the meantime any questions or comments are more than welcome!